Say somebody suggested a wager to you where the bet would be that this person could toss a coin and have it come up with the heads side for ten times in a row, and in order to ensure fairness this person would allow you to select the coin to do it with. What chance would you give him to succeed? Many, if not all would consider the odds to be against this person and think they could safely offer odds like a thousand to one and still have a high expectancy of winning.

Let’s take the same wager only this time the person in question has already tossed the coin nine times over and heads has come on top every time. What chance would you give him? The same as before? If so you would be wrong and this error is the heart of what is known as the gambler’s misconception.

The notion that previous results can affect the outcome of an event that is random by nature is what we commonly refer to as the gambler’s misconception. In our bet, the fact that the coin already turned up heads nine times has absolutely no effect on the tenth toss which still could go either way.

Because the coin came up with heads nine times in a row already, the chances of doing it a tenth time are 50 percent just like they were when the coin was tossed for the first time. A coin does not remember previous results and there is no difference between tossing this coin or another one. In other words the probability factor does not change.

In modern day casino games the gambler’s misconception has a great impact. Players typically are looking to spot patterns in order to gain the advantage in a game. To illustrate: Gamblers playing roulette who notice several wins on black in a row are more likely to bet on red, as in their mind it is due to turn up after so many results on black. Same goes for their betting amounts. If they lose, they most likely double their wagers in the belief it improves their chances of winning.

This misconception is used as the core of the flawed Martingale system. Using this system the wagers are doubled after each loss so when the player eventually wins he will make good on all previous losses he sustained. The reality of it all is that losses can and will happen, even many times in a row, there is no pattern to detect and players who base their strategies on this system could end up in financial problems if they do not have the required financial resources to back up their bets. They may end up with financial problems they are unable to solve on their own.

It should be noted that this strategy is a misconception only under circumstances where events are renewed at each turn, because in that case the conditions for the results are identical in every instance of the game. In card games such as Blackjack for example, cards already drawn can affect the outcome as the game progresses. That essentially is the foundation for counting cards, which actually is a strategy that can work.

M.A.H.